Independent Voting's Spokesperson Training

Posted by Cathy L. Stewart on December 26, 2024 at 11:44 AM

Our colleagues at Independent Voting will be holding their next semi-annual Spokesperson Training. A virtual training that is part educational, part performance training. Every independent has a story to tell about why he/she became independent. With 51% of Americans currently identifying as independent, and democracy falling well short of what it needs to be, independents need to be heard!

● Have you ever tried to explain to a friend why you are an independent, but were not sure how?

● Are you wondering how to talk about the 2024 elections and the role independents played?

● Have you ever watched a news program where the host acts as if every American is a Democrat or Republican and felt angry and left out?

If you answered yes, register today to reserve your spot at Independent Voting’s Spokesperson Training Program.

In a recent post-election interview with Independent Voting leaders Jackie Salit and Cathy Stewart, Katie Fahey, Executive Director of The People and founder of the new Respect Voters Coalition talked about her experience as a participant in Independent Voting's Spokesperson Training program:

"It's a genius way to help millions of people who identify as independents, who have very different personal views, to still speak with one voice to create that space for showing independents are real people. They aren’t just leaners, they aren’t just folks who are pretending to not tell you how they really vote – they’re real people who have strong beliefs, particularly about change. I think the Spokesperson Training program does a really good job not only in helping you meet other people but to be able to speak more confidently on what it means to be you and for that to be okay."

Listen to Katie's full statement in the video below and reserve your spot for Independent Voting's Spokesperson Training

Join the Spokesperson Training to increase your skills and comfort in telling your story!

Apply for the next Independent Voting Spokesperson Training here!

In 2024, independent voters grew their share of the vote, split their tickets and expanded their influence

Posted by Cathy L. Stewart on December 26, 2024 at 11:25 AM

Political independents vote differently from those who say they are Democrats or Republicans. VectorMine/iStock via Getty Images Plus

By Jacqueline Salit & Thom Reilly, originally published to The Conversation on Dec. 9, 2024

With a growing number of American voters identifying as politically independent, many pollsters, most members of the media and the campaigns themselves viewed the independent vote as crucial to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

According to Gallup, political independents continue to constitute the largest political bloc in the United States. In 2023, 43% of American voters claimed that label. Independents first outnumbered supporters of both major parties in 1991 and have done so since then, except between 2004 and 2008. In June 2024, 51% of U.S. adults said they were independents, more than the two major parties combined.

In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump became only the second Republican to win the popular vote since 1988, though he got less than 50% of the votes cast. Postelection analysis of 2024 voters’ behavior reveals that independent voters grew their share of the vote, split their votes between their choices for president and Senate candidates, and ended up expanding their overall influence.

Edison Research exit polling data

We teach public affairs and are co-directors of the Arizona State University Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy. We analyzed Edison Research exit polling from the 2024 election cycle to understand the effects of the independent vote. The Edison data is from a national survey of 22,900 respondents that is representative of the national electorate in terms of gender, age, race and geography.

According to the Edison data, there were 4.3 million fewer votes cast for president in 2024 than in 2020. But 11 million more people who identified themselves as independents cast ballots in 2024. The number of Republican voters decreased by 3.5 million, and the number of Democratic voters dropped by 11.2 million.

That means self-identified independents accounted for 34% of voters in 2024, more than the 31% of voters who said they were Democrats, and just slightly below the 35% of voters who said they were Republicans. In 2020, independents cast just 26% of the ballots nationwide.

It is important to note that the Edison Research exit polling data relies on political self-identification, so its numbers may be different from analyses that used respondents’ official party affiliation, and may also differ from analyses of how people have voted in the past.

Independents, demographically

In demographic terms, independents are more likely to be younger and more likely to be male than those who say they are affiliated with either party. In 2024, 44% of independents were under the age of 45, as compared with 37% of Democrats and 31% of Republicans.

As for gender, 34% of independents identified themselves as white women, the same share as those who say they’re Democrats. And 38% of independents identified themselves as white men, a similar share to the 40% of Republicans who reported that identity.

A larger portion of male independents had college degrees – 47% – than the 43% who said they were party affiliated. And 43% of independent women had college degrees, similar to the 41% of party-affiliated women.

The independent vote margin between Trump and Harris

Nationally, independents broke 49% for Harris and 46% for Trump, with 5% voting for one of the other presidential candidates. In many battleground states, however, it was a different picture. Trump won independents in Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Independents broke evenly in Nevada. Harris won independent voters in Michigan by 4 percentage points and in Wisconsin by 1 percentage point.

This outcome differed from 2020, when Biden won independents nationally 54% to 41% and independents provided his margin in key states.

How do independents behave politically?

Independents are more likely to identify themselves as political moderates than self-identified members of the two major parties.

The details of their views and how those views motivated their choice for president are revealing. When the Edison Research survey interviewers asked independents about their top concern when picking a presidential candidate to support, 41% of them said democracy was most important, and 31% said the economy. Just 11% said abortion was their top issue of concern, though 69% of independents believe abortion should be legal.

Among independents, 77% reported feeling dissatisfied or angry about the way things are going in the country today. That’s roughly in the middle of the 54% of Democrats and the 90% of Republicans who said the same.

Independents trusted Trump more on crime, safety and immigration. They trusted Harris more on abortion rights and split equally on whom they trusted more on the economy.

Independents who voted for Harris were less enthused about her and more interested in voting against Trump.

Independents are ticket splitters

Independents were more likely to split their tickets between their presidential and Senate votes than Democrats or Republicans. Nationally, 4.9% of Democrats and 4.9% of Republicans in states where U.S. Senate seats were on the ballot split their votes, casting ballots for one party’s candidate for president and another party’s candidate for Senate. An additional 2.2% of party-affiliated voters chose not to vote in the senatorial races.

Self-identified independent voters were nearly twice as likely to split their ticket, with 9.7% doing so nationwide. And 2.9% chose not to vote for a Senate candidate.

A similar picture is seen in the five presidential swing states that also had Senate races, with party-affiliated voters less likely to split their votes than independents.

An undefinable force

Our research has found that independents are swing voters who tend to change alignments between elections. In our book “The Independent Voter,” we have interpreted this behavior as a search for a home, or an alignment that is outside of fixed political categories.

Independents favored Barack Obama in 2008 by 8 percentage points and Trump in 2016 by 4 percentage points. In 2020, independents supported Biden by 13 percentage points and then Harris by 3 percentage points in 2024, representing a 10-percentage-point loss of support for the Democratic candidate.

This pattern of nonconformity is also supported by our research in which we analyzed American National Election Studies data on political identification and voting choices from 1972 to 2020. We observed significant volatility in which party independent voters support. From one election to another, they voted for Democrats, then Republicans and back again.

Independents are an emerging force in American politics. They characteristically line up between the views of most adherents of the major parties, being more socially tolerant and fiscally aware than their partisan counterparts. They are also more likely to be split-ticket voters than the two major parties’ backers and seem to have a notable affinity for rejecting the incumbent.

This changing shape of the electorate, combined with the popularity of political independence among younger Americans – over half of Gen Z voters identify as independents – calls into question the two-party formula that has long dominated and defined the American political landscape.

The Edison Research/National Election Pool via Reuters data was acquired by IndependentVoting.org and shared with the ASU Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy.

The US Political System Is Failing Young Voters the Most

Posted by Cathy L. Stewart on December 09, 2024 at 11:00 AM

By Shawn Griffiths - Originally published Dec. 3, 2024 on Independent Voter News

Photo by Getty Images on Unsplash

In 2024, Gallup found for the first time in the history of its polling that more than half of the electorate identified as independent. The biggest driver of this political shift are young voters, who enter voting age more independent than the generation before them.

Research consistently finds that the youngest generations of voters are much more likely than older generations to identify and/or register independent of any political party. This includes recent findings from Change Research that looked at party registration in 20 states.

In many states, the gap among young voters between party registration and independent registration is huge, and notably, the largest gaps are in states in which independent voters are denied access to taxpayer-funded primary elections.

These states include Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Oregon. Young voters in the last two states are more likely to be registered independent by a substantial margin.

According to Unite America, young independent voters cannot participate in congressional primaries in 15 states. Yet, most US House seats are so safe for one party or the other that general elections are nowhere near as consequential as the primaries.

Up to 90% of winners are picked in low-turnout primary elections, creating an incentive to appease to a political minority rather than the electorate at-large. It also plays a significant role in the continued decline in confidence in government and political institutions.

"If young voters are disproportionately unable to vote in primary elections that effectively determine the winner, this may lead to negative downstream effects on their general political engagement, trust in political institutions, and overall orientation toward politics," Unite America writes. 

The Current System Is Most Damaging to Young Independents

This effect on young voters can also be seen in their motivations for being independent. Compared to older independents, they are much more likely to believe the parties are too influenced by monied interests and that the political system is corrupt and in need of reform.

Young independents are also much more likely to agree with the statement that "political parties do not represent my views." What motivation do they have then to trust in a system that was manufactured at every level to be controlled by two parties that don't represent them?

Especially, when many young independents say they are independent because they don't believe that one side is always right and the other side is always wrong. Instead, they hold diverse viewpoints on a variety of issues.

One young independent voter told Change Research: "Each party has principles that I agree and disagree with.”

But again, the current system does not incentivize diverse perspectives. Nearly every state conducts partisan primaries that divide voters between a Republican ballot and a Democratic ballot, and voters can only choose from candidates of a single party.

The two major parties make the electoral rules. They decide who gets to vote and when. They control the primaries that decide most electoral outcomes. In some states, you cannot even work as a polling official unless you are a party member.

Even in open partisan primary states that allow independent participation, voters are told from the start they have to pick a side when most independent voters want the freedom to pick the candidate that best represents their views, regardless of party.

But by the time many of them cast a ballot, that decision was already made for them by a marginal percentage of the voting population, giving party bosses and special interest groups that can mobilize primary voters the most control over electoral outcomes.

It is not inviting, nor does it inspire confidence and trust among voters who were already skeptical of the US electoral system and its political institutions when they came of age to vote.

It All Starts with the Primaries

It is not lost on independent voters what exclusion from primary elections means for them and their representation. Change Research found that large majorities of independent voters, regardless of age, believed primary exclusion was a violation of their voting rights.

This included 80% of independent voters between the ages of 18 and 34. One voter surveyed said, "Everyone should have a right to have a say."

Independent voters surveyed also supported open primary reform. According to the data, about 9-in-10 young independent voters supported open partisan primary reform and about 8-in-10 supported open, all candidate nonpartisan primaries.

Although less older independents were sold on these reforms, support was still at a healthy majority.

About 24 million independent voters are denied access to taxpayer-funded primary elections each election cycle. Half of these voters are between 18 and 34. Unless there is meaningful systemic reform, these voters will never feel like their voice matters.

Because the current system tells them it doesn't. They are told to suck it up and choose between two candidates that the increasingly divided and unpopular parties chose for them

Most independent voters believe "every citizen should have the right to vote in all elections." The path to make this happen resides with the people to build movements for change because the parties in power will do whatever it takes to preserve the status quo.