Arizona young voters survey

Posted by Cathy L. Stewart on July 09, 2024 at 1:57 PM

Originally aired July 3rd, 2024 on PBS Arizona Horizon

What role might young voters plan in this November’s election?

Arizona State University researchers just finished compiling results of a new, rare comprehensive survey of the political beliefs of Arizona adults age 30 and younger.

The findings: two out of three Gen Z registered voters in Arizona — a battleground state in this year’s presidential election – say they plan to vote in November. But four in five say the two major political parties don’t represent them.

66% of Gen Z registrants said they plan to vote in the November general election. Of those, a like number of Democrats and Republicans, 78% each, say they plan to vote, as do 53% of independents.

Cost of living and housing affordability were the top concerns.

We are joined by Thom Reilly the Co-Director at ASU Center for an Independent & Sustainable Democracy, School of Public Affairs and Jacqueline Salit the Co-Director at ASU Center for an Independent & Sustainable Democracy, School of Public Affairs to learn more.

"It doesn't take a big swing": Expert says "one group" ditching Trump over conviction — independents

Posted by Cathy L. Stewart on July 01, 2024 at 1:37 PM

Democrats and Republicans are sticking to their corners — but new poll shows independents moving away from Trump

By Tatyana Tandanpoli - Originially publishd June 9, 2024 - REPOSTED FROM Salon.com

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a community roundtable at the 180 Church in Detroit, Michigan, on June 15, 2024. (JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images)

Donald Trump's allies have insisted that his criminal conviction in New York would actually help him in the campaign, arguing that the public would buy the former president's claim that the prosecution amounted to political persecution. But a new poll raises serious doubts about that prediction and suggest Trump has lost ground among independent voters since the verdict came down.

A Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll released Monday found that 22 percent of respondents said that Trump's conviction is important to how they will vote and makes them less inclined to support the former president, compared to just 6 percent who said the conviction affects how they plan to vote and makes them more likely to support Trump.

Trump's recent conviction had a similar result among independent voters, with 21% reporting it made them less likely to support him and factored into their voting plans. That percentage is notable given that even minor shifts in independent and swing-voters could sway the election if the race is close.

Such a shift also isn't surprising given what researchers know about "notoriously unpredictable" independent voters, according to Thom Reilly, a professor of public affairs at Arizona State University and co-director of ASU's Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy.

"We've clearly seen that [the conviction is] not making a difference with Democrats and Republicans," Reilly told Salon. "So it makes sense that the one group that perhaps it may move the needle on and impact how they vote are independents."

Independents "represent the political spectrum" but seem to be bound together by two prominent "thematic issues," explained Reilly, a co-author of "The Independent Voter," a 2022 book analyzing the rise of the voting bloc. A portion of independents tend to be "anti-corruption," he said, which aligns with an indication that they may be more hesitant to support a candidate who's been convicted of a felony. Those voters have also centralized around "anti-incumbency" as seen in recent presidential elections, Reilly said, pointing to former President Barack Obama's eight-point lead with the voting bloc in 2008 — which became a five-point deficit with independents in his 2012 re-election bid — Trump's four-point lead in 2016 and Biden's 13-point lead in 2020. 

"They seem to be moving, and some of that may be because [they're] just wanting something different, or the problem the parties make when independents may vote in the plurality for their party: they tend to treat them as partisans, and they're not, so they get disenfranchised," he said.

Robert Lieberman, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University, told Salon he expects independent voters to be one of the main demographics to determine the outcome of this year's election, especially in competitive states. Whether the former president's conviction will ultimately come home to roost at the polls will depend on how those voters feel — and their likelihood of actually voting. 

"A lot of those voters are probably also people who are among the people who feel, right now, that they're not energized by the choice between Biden and Trump," Lieberman said. Of those whom the poll indicates have been swayed by the conviction, "is it enough to get those people off their couch and to the polling place or to a mailbox to vote" if they otherwise might not have voted? 

A Manhattan jury found Trump guilty late last month of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up a $130,000 hush money payment made to an adult-film star ahead of the 2016 presidential election to conceal their alleged affair from voters. The former president has continuously denied wrongdoing and the allegations, and has signaled plans to appeal the verdict after his July 11 sentencing. 

Thirty-eight percent of all respondents to the Politico survey indicated Trump's conviction had no influence over their level of support for a Trump presidency, but among those for which the verdict did have an impact, the results were uneven. Thirty-three percent said the conviction made them less likely to support the presumptive GOP nominee, while just 17 percent said it made them more likely to. 

The results looked similar when specified to independent voters, with 32 percent saying the verdict made them less likely to support Trump and only 12 percent reporting it would make them more likely to support him. The former figure is down four percent from a pre-conviction poll Politico Magazine/Ipsos published in March that asked only how a guilty verdict in the Manhattan case would affect voters' support for the former president. 

Altogether, Politico writes, the latest poll results "suggest that Americans’ views on the Trump verdict may still be malleable — and could get better or worse for Trump."

His sentencing and Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's upcoming testimony before Congress about the case are among a slew of events that could further influence public opinion before the election, regardless of political campaigns' efforts to do so. Hunter Biden's conviction last week on felony gun charges and a trial on tax charges slated for September could also play a part as they undercut right-wing claims that the Biden administration has "weaponized" the Justice Department against Trump, the outlet notes.

For now, however, some of the results seem to also suggest Americans' are overwhelmingly indifferent about the conviction as far as it pertains to how they plan to vote.

Forty-seven percent of politically independent respondents said Trump's conviction had no affect on their support of the former president or their voting plans in November. That apparent indifference was also reflected by the survey takers overall, with 40 percent of all respondents saying the same.

Other polls from shortly before or after Trump's conviction had similar findings. A late May PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll conducted during the Manhattan trial saw 67 percent of respondents saying the conviction would have no impact on their vote — including 74 percent of independents — while a recontacting survey conducted by The New York Times noted just a two-point decrease in support for the former president among registered voters that still gave him a one point lead over Joe Biden. 

These results mark a stark contrast from earlier surveys of registered voters' expected reactions to a guilty verdict, which often saw not insignificant percentages of respondents indicating in one way or another that his conviction would turn them off from supporting him or voting for him come November. 

Lieberman said he'd always been skeptical of the polls and claims that suggested Trump's conviction would not have a "big impact."

"Unless you're Rip Van Winkle, and you just woke up from a 10 year nap, your views of Donald Trump are pretty well fixed, and an additional piece of information that he was convicted of this thing that pretty much everyone knew he did — it's not really breathtaking new information," he said, arguing that not much is surprising to U.S. voters given the former president has been "at the center of American politics for nine years."

"For the people who support him, this is evidence that the deep state really is out to get him, for the people who hate him, this is confirmation of their previous belief that he's a criminal, and for people in-between, they're still going to be in between," he continued. "Of all the things that we've learned about Donald Trump for the last 10 years, why would this be the thing that kicks them over from indifference to either support or opposition?"

In addition to the apparent lack of shock value among the electorate, American's haven't really been paying attention to Trump's prosecution or conviction, Reilly posited — a claim supported by the 55 percent of Americans who reported as much in an early May PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll.

A better litmus test to gauge voter attitudes toward the conviction would come after Trump's sentencing, Lieberman said, both because it offers voters more information about the former president's legal status and is just slightly closer to the election. 

Reilly added he suspects the percentage of seemingly indifferent voters will decrease as more information becomes available and more Americans engage with it.

Even then, the small shifts in voter support seen in current polls, especially among independents, could still signal a massive impact in November that determines the next U.S. president. While 21 percent of independents pulling support from Trump doesn't read as a large portion of the electorate, in a race poised to be as close in margin as the 2020 and 2016 elections, that portion of voters in key districts and swing states could be all that's needed to decide the election for either main-party candidate, Lieberman explained. 

"It's going to be decided by a very small number of votes in a few states that are very close," he predicted. "It doesn't take a big swing of a large number of voters to change the outcome in a state like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona." 

What impact the conviction will have on voters' opinions and November decisions at the ballot box will ultimately come down to the Biden and Trump campaigns' strategies, Lieberman said. 

Biden rolled out a $50 million ad campaign on Monday blasting Trump as a "convicted criminal" while also referencing his civil liability for sexual abuse and defamation, a move that Lieberman said indicates Biden's campaign has some reason to believe some voters will be swayed by "being reminded of that."

"A lot of how this plays will be defined by the campaigns. How much is Biden going to talk about it? That's what people will see," he said. "How much are these ads that he started to run going to take off? Is that one of the things that the Biden campaign is going to want people to remember about Donald Trump when they cast their vote? Or are they going to focus on something else?

"And does Trump want to keep talking about it as part of his list of grievances, or is he going to focus his attention on other grievances?" Lieberman continued, adding: "Which grievances will he and his campaign find most useful to motivate people?"

NEW ASU CISD Report

Posted by Cathy L. Stewart on June 26, 2024 at 1:32 PM

Frustrated but Engaged

Gen Z Attituds on Voting, Parties and Issues in 2024

Cover Art and Design by Julia Hemsworth

By Dan Hunting, Thom Reilly, Jacqueline Salit and Cathy Stewart

Published by the Arizona State University Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy, June 24th 2024

Sponsored by Clean Elections

In the November 2024 election, almost 41 million members of Generation Z (under age 30) will be eligible to vote nationally (1). The Gen Z population voted at a higher rate in the 2022 midterm election than previous generations did at that age and the participation rate of young people in the 2020 presidential election was one of the highest since the voting age was lowered to 18 in 1972 (2,3).

However, some sources indicate troubling signs that this trend may not be continuing. According to Harvard Kennedy School’s annual youth poll, the percent of 18- to 29-year-olds who are “definitely” going to vote dropped from 57 percent in 2020 to 49 percent in 2024 (4). Young adults are more skeptical of government and pessimistic about the future than any living generation before them (5).

Gen Z registered voters ages 20-30 comprise 19 percent of the Arizona voting age population and 18 percent of all registered voters. However, only 10 percent of the total ballots cast in the 2022 general election came from this age group. According to the Arizona Secretary of State’s office, their political affiliation breaks down as Republicans (21%), Democrats (30%), and Non-Affiliated or Party Not Declared (49%). Latinos make up 31 percent of this group. In the 2022 general election, 33 percent of the registered voters ages 20-30 turned out to vote and 68 percent sat out the election, even though they were registered.

So, what are the current Gen Z attitudes on voting? What key issues might impact their voting participation? What are the information sources they use to make decisions on elections? And how likely are they to participate in the 2024 election?

These are some of the questions we asked 1,315 Arizona registered voters between the ages of 20 and 30. The results indicate frustration with the current political system, especially with the two major parties, coupled with a feeling that there are opportunities to improve the situation.

• A large number of registered Gen Z voters plan to vote in the 2024 general election: Two-thirds (66 percent) saying they will definitely vote, 29 percent possibly voting and only 5 percent saying they do not intend to vote. 78 percent of both Democrats and Republicans, and 53 percent of independents said they will definitely vote, while 57 percent of Latinos and 70 percent of non-Latinos indicate they will definitely vote.

• The top reasons for those Gen Z voters not voting in 2022 were: ‘too busy’ (29%), ‘process too complicated or confusing’ (25%), ‘candidates not reflecting their ideas’ (17%) and ‘feeling their vote did not matter’ (15 %).

• When asked, “What would make it more likely that you’ll vote in the 2024 general election?” , 43 percent of those who chose not to vote in 2022 checked the box for ‘candidates that better align with my values’, and 40 percent chose ‘candidates addressing issues that are important to me’.

• Top issues for Gen Z voters in 2024 include: Cost of Living (90%), Affordable Housing (86%), Protecting the Water Supply (81%) Health Care (79%), Fair and Secure Elections (78%), Jobs (76%) and Reproductive Rights (74%). independents aligned with Democrats on several issues, such as affordable housing, health care, reproductive rights, and climate change. Other issues, including fair and secure elections, taxes, gas prices, and gun rights, show independent choices similar to Republicans.

• Gen Z voters showed a high level of support for democratic principles, but also a great deal of skepticism about how well the current political environment works. There was overwhelming support shown for equal access to voting regardless of party affiliation (95%), more third-party ballot choices (80%), and the idea that their vote can change things for the better (69%). However, a majority of respondents (80%) felt that the major parties are out of touch with people of their age and that all politicians are corrupt. Strong majorities (80%) disagreed with the statements ‘the current political system works for my generation and both Republican and Democratic politicians want what’s best for the country.’

• Arizona Gen Z voters get their news sources on important issues from social media (56%), followed by online news sites at 48 percent. Only 10 percent used print media – newspapers and magazines.

• Respondents were asked if the presence of ballot measures on various policy choices would make it more likely that they would vote in November 2024. The measure ‘Establishing a fundamental right to abortion before fetal viability by enshrining the right to abortion in Arizona's constitution’ would make 93 percent of Democrats and 70 percent of independents more likely to vote. Likewise, significant portions of Democrats and independents expressed support for educational funding, increasing the minimum wage and open primaries.

• The potential for an uptick in voter turnout in 2024 as compared with 2022 seems most pronounced among Gen Z independents.

Arizona Gen Z voters are now distinctly independent, with independent registrations comprising 49 percent of the total. Among registered voters older than 30, just 32 percent are independent. Almost a third of all voters in this age group are Latino. They overwhelmingly feel the two major parties are not working in the best interest of the country and are out of touch with people of their age. They tend to feel that politicians are corrupt. A sizeable number feel the voting system is confusing, that candidates do not reflect their ideas and their vote does not matter. However, despite this, a large majority indicate they will be voting in 2024.

With regard to their support for democratic principles, there was overwhelming backing for equal access to voting regardless of party affiliation, more third-party ballot choices, and the idea that their vote can change things for the better.

Issues most important for this group of voters are primarily economic, with cost of living, affordable housing, health care, and jobs ranking as issues of most concern. Issues such as fair and secure elections and reproductive rights also are top of mind. Likely signaling a regional concern, protecting the water supply was also a major issue or this generation.

Not surprisingly, Gen Z voters get their information on important issues from social media. Print media such as newspapers and magazines are used by only 10 percent of this group of voters. Finally, citizen led ballot initiatives dealing with reproductive rights, open primaries, and an increase in the minimum wage and education funding are top motivators for this group, especially, Democrats and independents.

This statewide study and report were funded by Arizona Clean Election Commission, a voter-centered state agency that fosters greater citizen participation via the election process and voter education. With thanks to IndependentVoting.org for providing assistance in the preparation of this report.

[READ THE FULL REPORT HERE]

(1) https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/41-million-members-gen-z-will-be-eligible-vote-2024

(2) https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/gen-z-voted-higher-rate-2022-previous-generations-their-first-midterm-election

(3) https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/half-youth-voted-2020-11-point-increase-2016

(4) https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

(5) https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/gen-z-voters-election-tiktok-5bcdc524